Some explanations will eventually measure up to the standards of good reasoning; that is no reason to eliminate the standards. unintentional aggression. . Exp. When it did come true, it was often counted as reason to believe that the oracle had special powers. a. immature c. with the intent to harm psychologically. It must generate testable predictions. The second part of the total evidence condition for explanatory arguments is this: the probability of the explanation must not be implausibly low and must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. Webe. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. It was a remarkably precise predictionpreposterous, really, given the rarity of comets, unless one made the assumption of Newtons celestial mechanics. structuralism, functionalism, behaviorism, humanism. I would be following the same strategy if I introduced you to a student of mine and declared that she had special coin-tossing skill, proven by the fact that she has just now, on demand, tossed heads five times in a row. Unlike the case of Halleys comet, the observable outcomesa blue anchor on his hand, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, an air of commandare where the reasoning begins. 1) A complex, ordered organization consisting of one or more cells. Higher expectations by teachers and by themselves causes students to perform better. WebExploratory research: Definition. Said author Delgado, We have been conned. Newtons theories, for example, while applied here to Halleys comet, actually cover the motion of all objects at all times. There we have the marine. Look for coincidence as an alternative explanation. 4,38,916,2732,. He claims he has no knowledge of the Molotov cocktail. , For many years, ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare sightings of emerald icebergs. . Which of the following exemplifies the empirical method? The achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that the mysterious sculptors created their masterpiece millennia before the existence of their subject. Two ways of distinguishing themaccording to chronology and to generalitycan be especially helpful. Why would you try to persuade your friend of something you have both just agreed is true? Lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior across the lifespan. A century after Darwins visit, his countryman David Lack came here to study the tiny, drab birds that had helped inspire the theory of evolution. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. Any unfalsifiable explanation is in principle unable to satisfy the improbable-outcome criterion and can never be the conclusion of a sound explanatory argument. To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? There are two types of hypothesis. a. with the intent to harm physically. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles a. How does Abbys conclusion fare in the face of this alternative explanation? An alternative explanation is that Jones was hearing the word enormous, which sounds like simone backwards and occurs frequently in the speeches (and probably does not pose any danger to national security). In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. The deception explanation should often be considered, but it is subject to the same high standards that apply to any other explanatory argument. Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. b. e. as a linear function, The general aggression model proposes that the probability of aggression increases because of As with our other inductive arguments, the total evidence condition for logical success has two parts. This applies to both singular and general explanations. A general, fact-based understanding of the basics of biology and other sciences, the scientific method, and the social, political, and legal implications of scientific information. For, as researchers have shown, we have a natural tendencytermed a confirmation biasto look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might falsify the alternativesto look, for example, for worshippers who escaped rather than thinking also about those who drowned. , Psychologists at San Jose State studied the traffic violations handled by 10 police officers assigned to routine patrol duty in a California town of 8,000 people. T. How often do plumbers waste time by doing things such as drying their clothes when they can make more money by going on to another job? All of these. Oona wants to conduct research on personnel management, workplace environment, and what type of environment results in high levels of employee productivity and efficiency. That a deductive failure and an inductive success can share the same form reminds us of an important lesson: deductive arguments rely only on the correct form condition, while inductive arguments also have recourse to the total evidence condition. The first part focuses on the importance of the improbability of the outcome. B. A house fire victim, for example, is quoted in the newspaper as explaining, I kept smelling something, and then I saw the smoke. No. When your entire family is wiped out in a car crash, that is support for Romans 8:28 tooafter all, they are in heaven and you are going to have your character strengthened, so it is good. Aggression is detrimental to performance. Favoring outcomes that rule out alternative explanations is an especially powerful strategy. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. This is an important source of the comet arguments logical strength. Our natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. In a short paragraph, identify the explanation, discuss why it may be unfalsifiable, and explain how this results in a problem with the first part of the total evidence condition. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological perspectives, with the earliest perspective listed first. Write an expression for the general or nth term, an,a_{n},an, for the geometric sequence. An explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. Meteorites provide yet another example. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. [1001]. First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). Add a moving part to the machine, and the probability that every part will work drops dramatically. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method What distinction (if any) is there between a scientific theory and a conceptual one that might lead you to disagree with this argument? Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . Applying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? But they differ from inductive generalizations in an important way. e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that But the premises would provide virtually no support for the Newtonian conclusioncomets do appear from time to time, so this particular outcome would have been virtually certain anyway. I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. If the answer is yes, then the argument is at least moderately strong (assuming it has not failed the first part of the total evidence condition). In a scientific trial, some participants are given a pill that looks identical to a pill that contains the active ingredient being studied in the trial, but contains no active ingredient itself. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles . Functionalist psychologists focus on the function of behavior and ________. . For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. b. athletes view aggressive acts as more appropriate in society than in the sport environment Is the outcome stated precisely? Then NASAs Donald Bogard compared the meteorites fingerprint of noble gases to those found on Mars by the Viking landerand discovered that they matched closely. For example, we can ask about the frequency of singular explanationshow frequently butlers leave their fingerprints on candlesticks or how frequently marines have tattoosbut it isnt helpful, probably not even meaningful, to ask about the frequency with which Newtonian mechanics is true. a. many coaches, parents, and teammates accept and reinforce the modeling of aggressive acts A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. Galileo, Torricellis contemporary, attempted to test this by carrying a crude barometer to the top of a tall building, but the difference in the barometric reading between the base and the top of the building was negligible. The physics of Descartes still dominated science, and it would be several decades before Newtons views completely won out. All of the following are elements of biological literacy EXCEPT: Having read the most important books in biology. He has undergone hardship and sickness, as his haggard face says clearly. The explanation here is The gods are powerful and the observable outcome is Many who worship the gods have escaped from shipwrecks. The experience of flight instructors was at one time taken to be good evidence for the theory. WebThe explanatory hypothesis is the heart of the case formulation. C. It's correlated, but not causal. Explanatory arguments require humble attention to the facts of our experience, as Huxley notes above. If you evaluate the probability of the appearance of the comet but include in your background evidence the assumption that Newton is correct, then (setting aside the problem this would probably be the fallacy of begging the question) the probability of the 1758 comet would be very highit is, after all, derived from the Newtonian explanation as its outcome! [If competition for food among finches on Galapagos is the main cause of extremes in beak sizes, then there are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions of scarcity the finches with extremes survive best. All rights reserved. e. neglectful. Suppose I am encouraging you in your fledgling acting career and argue, You are so talented that all the critics who dont praise you are just jealous. a. setting up specific guidelines distinguishing assertive play from inappropriate aggressive play Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. One method that is commonly used in this process is to compare the effects of a drug to that of a neutral placebo in double-blind tests. Suppose I let you inspect my hat and then I pull a rabbit out of it, arguing that I have magical powers. a. (If necessary, review Section 4.4.4.4.4.4.) Specialists found the cause by taking motion pictures of the patients vocal cords during an attack and during a normal period. He had a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. B. Before experimental drugs can be brought to market, they must undergo many rigorous trials to ensure they deliver their medical benefits effectively and safely. It is not likely that we would now call it Halleys sun. If so, it is probably better to judge the logic of the argument as, at best, undecidable and, at worst, extremely weak. This insight can be especially valuable when improbable events are explained by appeal to the paranormal. a. as a circle b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? This closure did not occur during a normal period. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. I dont smoke a pipe. Premise 2 is probably true. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. Which of the following has scientific investigation shown to be LEAST reliable in criminal prosecutions? Make observations. What is the MOST IMPORTANT flaw in this investigation? So the arguments logic must be considered weak. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, The Total Evidence Condition (1): the Improbability of the Outcome, The Total Evidence Condition (2): the Probability of the Explanation, [If we are well above sea level, then water boils quickly.]. Any performance significantly better or worse than the students current mean level of competence would be largely a matter of chance. unintentional aggression. The Total Evidence Condition for Explanatory Arguments. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. WebThe explanatory hypothesis is the heart of the case formulation. A second way of distinguishing among explanatory arguments is in their level of generality. If an explanation does already exist, then the outcome has a high prior probability and the argument is logically weak. She is a great actress. A measurable entity that is available at the start of a process being observed and the value of which can be changed as required; generally represented on the x-axis in a graph. Signs that an Argument Is Explanatory Rather than Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent. That would tend to imply that the damned thing blew up. , Woman interviewed on TV: At first I heard a funny roar. Males exhibit higher levels of aggression than females. Reject explanatory arguments that have unfalsifiable explanations; they are in principle unable to satisfy the first part of the total evidence condition. A measurable entity that is created by the process being observed and whose value cannot be controlled; generally represented on the y- axis in a graph and expected to change in response to a change in the independent variable. Researchers found that during a three-year period, the percentage of tickets, compared to simple warnings, was considerably higher during the night shift: more than 71 percent of the drivers stopped at night got tickets, compared with 58 percent of those stopped during the day (the others got warnings). A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. Further, we have a conceptual framework for Buffets skillthe causal mechanism makes sensefor his strategies have been widely publicized, and the small handful of others who have had the discipline to follow them have also succeeded over the long run. Part of the reason, presumably, was because the jury saw that if they carefully thought about alternative explanations, they might find one with a higher prior probability than the one Lincolns opponent was arguing for. . To say that an explanation or an outcome is not falsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. An experimental design in which the subjects do not know what treatment (if any) they are receiving. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. . the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. Learn more about how Pressbooks supports open publishing practices. d. Aggression facilitates performance only in team-sport athletes. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? A hypothesis attempts to explain natural phenomenon and can be tested through experimentation; a theory attempts to summarize a large expanse of natural phenomenon and has already been tested thoroughly without contradictory results. 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which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis