Immediately below is the video of the event. Preferences from fourth & further candidates total 21.8%, but 14% is with right wing groups which favoured Liberals over Labour over Greens strongly in 2019. As for the current results as they stand, the AEC has been conducting and publishing a 3CP count and the Liberals are in fact first: https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm. Demographics (2019 boundaries): Median weekly household income: $1,866 (Australia $1,438) People over 65: 12.2% (Australia 15.8%) Australian born: 54.5% (Australia 66.7%) Ancestry: Chinese 5.6% Full distribution of preferences was just released in a zip file according to Poll Bludger, I downloaded it and had a look then. The remaining are all absentee, provisional and Declaration pre polls. Second Issue: Economic development. This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria Melbourne. It covers an area of approximately 40 sq km around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay. If Labour end up not winning Macnamara, it will be a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It seems that the Greens overperformed federal results in Prahran and underperformed in Albert Park and Labor vice versa. Macnamara has a large Jewish population, and Michael Danby often argued against giving the Greens preferences in Melbourne Ports because of Green support for Palestinian causes. Occupation: Full-time West Melbourne City Council member; previous mortgage underwriter for Chase Bank for nineyears; previous title agent for more than 20 years; previous finance manager for several auto dealerships. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. A successful businesswoman, Bernadene has been a resident for 20 years in the electorate of Macnamara. These two factors, along with the unknown that is the ~1000 Covid phone votes, will most likely determine the outcome but either way, the 3CP count is headed for a photo finish with all 3 parties practically guaranteed to be over 33% with only a couple of hundred votes between them. (My prediction is around 33.5% LIB, 33.3% ALP, 33.2% GRN). [3], Coordinates: .mw-parser-output .geo-default,.mw-parser-output .geo-dms,.mw-parser-output .geo-dec{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .geo-nondefault,.mw-parser-output .geo-multi-punct{display:none}.mw-parser-output .longitude,.mw-parser-output .latitude{white-space:nowrap}375122S 1445834E / 37.856S 144.976E / -37.856; 144.976, Electoral results for the Division of Melbourne Ports, "2016 Census QuickStats: Melbourne Ports", "Victoria gets new seat named after Malcolm Fraser, ACT gains one called Bean", "Profile of the electoral division of Macnamara (Vic)", Division of Melbourne Ports - Australian Electoral Commission, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Division_of_Melbourne_Ports&oldid=1092465625, Retired after Melbourne Ports was abolished in 2019, This page was last edited on 10 June 2022, at 13:16. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. She is a single mother and has four adopted children, two of which are from overseas. Gallop is a Criminal Justice/Breaking News Reporter at FLORIDA TODAY. Conceding and declaring victory is only a formality. You may be trying to access this site from a secured browser on the server. To date, I have been instrumental in working with our Tallahassee representatives to bring back $3 million-plus for water projects to Melbourne. Thats extraordinary, quite possibly the closest 3 way 3CP count ever, and I think a full 3CP recount if its that close is a very likely possibility. The first preference vote graph is reflected in many inner-Melbourne electorate, with a rise in Green support mirrored by a decline in Labor first preference vote. Melbourne Ports covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. I think there are enough Right Wing Micro Party Party votes to push Libs ahead into first. So lets look at Absent votes first. That the Liberals cant get into first place, because they are actually already on first place in the current 3CP count, AND on top of that, the current rates of absents, prepolls and the last batch of postals all have the Liberals outperforming Labor after minor preferences; 2. Locations and shipping agents' contact details, below. The top two issues in the community I represent are affordable housing and homeless social issues. Sure, the 2CP run-off will be revealed upon the throw of all preferences. Xem trc tuyn Green Gully Cavaliers U21 vs Port Melbourne Sharks SC U21 AUS VPL U21 11:00 11/03/2022 . And silver medals can be distr oh wait. Melbourne:2022 elections: Meet the six candidates running for three Melbourne City Council seats; Political/government/civic experience: West Melbourne City Council (appointed June 2022); secretary of Space Coast Field of Dreams board; West Melbourne Citizens Leadership Academy; former deputy chair of West Melbourne Parks & Recreation board; former Brevard educator; Transportation & Intergovernmental Relations Policy Committee member; member of the Melbourne, Palm Bay, Titusville and Cocoa Beach chambers of commerce; and LEAD Brevard board member. Infrastructure needs: Invest in, maintain and improve our infrastructure, while being mindful of residential, economic and environmental impact. The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labors best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades. What I care about is the community of people. Wills ( ALP 8.5% v GRN) is the seat for former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and runs north-west between Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek from inner-city Brunswick to the Western Ring Road. Attracting and retaining businesses, while improving our infrastructure to keep up with the growth. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. It also had a high proportion of atheists and agnostics, with 38.8% of residents answering "No Religion" in the 2016 census, compared to 30.1% nationwide. If all the remaining votes, using Kevin Bonhams expectation of 1750 postal votes, break exactly as they currently are, I only have the Greens beating Labor by about 50 votes which would be an automatic recount. The Greens could very easily gain this seat if Albanese turns out to be a disappointment and if the looming redistribution removes Caulfield and adds South Yarra and Prahran. It included Port Melbourne, but also included a number of middle and upper middle class suburbs such as Albert Park, Balaclava, Caulfield, Elwood, Middle Park, Ripponlea, South Melbourne and St Kilda. Because 500 votes separated the Greens from Labor, and in all seats covering Macnamara, the Greens had an increase in primary votes, 8% in Prahran, 4% in Albert Park, and even 1.1% in Caulfield with a teal running. The Greens have a ridiculously small margin of error for it to not work out for them. Macnamara was a medical researcher and doctor who discovered there was more than one type of the polio virus and worked extensively with children suffering from poliomyelitis, training doctors and physiotherapists in the management of the disease. [ edit] Primary vote results in Melbourne (Parties that did not get 5% of the vote are omitted) Liberal Labor Australian Democrats Greens Reason Two-candidate-preferred results in Melbourne References [ edit] The Division of Melbourne Ports is located to the south of Melbourne's central business district. But the symbolism is incredibly important, with all the talk both before and after the election about the prospect of minority government and the low major party combined primary vote. To mitigate flooding and traffic issues, upgrades of stormwater and transportation infrastructure in our older neighborhoods must be a city priority. Labour need only finish in final two run-off. This is all bad news for Labor because it means the Greens are rapidly catching them, while the Liberals are pulling away from them. Her best hope now is that the Liberals smash Labor in the postal votes but thats unlikely. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining. I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department," Dittmore said. He was elected Leader after the 2019 election. Stephen Mayne will be the moderator. Please enable scripts and reload this page. That is a real possibility if they do well. Thoughts on who wouldve won this seat based on the state election figures? I compared it to the Macnamara electorate results in May not the 2018 state results where a Greens ran. Redistribution Loses Windsor to neighbouring Higgins. And no matter what the result, considering the Greens are currently third on 32.93% and all the remaining votes should favour them, I think its safe to say all 3 candidates will finish between a minimum of 33.1% and a maximum of 33.6% when the 3CP count is complete. Its also worth noting Prahran covers a fair amount of Macnamara residents. Bandt increased his primary vote further to 42.6% in 2013, allowing him to overcome the decision of the Liberal Party to reverse past preference recommendations and put Labor ahead of the Greens. The moderator was Bernadene Voss, a two-term Councillor and three-time Mayor in the City of Port Phillip. But damn Id be nervous if I was them with the way each batch of votes has been breaking. It was located to the south of Melbourne's central business district and covered an area of approximately 40km2 around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay. Michael Organ had previously won Cunningham for the Greens in 2002, but this was at a by-election. Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics. When comparing Greens and Labor. Because Antony Green knows way more (if it is true that he was going to call it). Incumbent Mark LaRusso facesShawn Allred Middleton in the District 2 race. The video of the event is the second of the three videos below. My last 3CP calculation had the Greens 422 preferences ahead of Labour at the final 3CP count in Macnamara. In 2018, I pledged to work toward a healthy Indian River Lagoon. The Greens finished a close third in 2007, passing the Liberals on preference transfers to finish second to Labor. Shifts east losing Kensington to Maribyrnong in the west while gaining Clifton Hill from Cooper in the east, and a part of Brunswick East from Wills. Dont get me wrong. I support the use of all available tools, including fee-based programs that would be paid for by polluters, but could result in significant savings for our citizens, like septic system improvements, odor controland enhanced water testing. Redistribution Macnamara lost Windsor to Higgins. Immediately below is the video of the event. Agree, Dan M, also need to note that much of Prahran is also in Macnamara in all 3 seats the Libs overperformed their federal results in May and like what we saw in their elite heartland there was some recovery these seats (taking into account more right-wing minor parties this time like FFV) compared to 2018. City Council members also could soon discuss the feasibility of building their own city-run fire department. Poll Bludger has not called it for Labor, they have actually said the odds are most likely leaning against them now. Cruise ship schedule 2022-23. To make a comment or suggest a change to the election site, pleasecontact us. We pay our respects to Elders past, present andemerging. These kinds of investments drive responsible growth, Adams said. I would argue if they preferenced the cookers last and Michael OBrien was the leader they would have done better here. Education:Bachelorof Science in criminal justice from Florida Gulf Coast University, Political/government/civic experience:Member of the Melbourne Citizens' Advisory Board, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links: allred4d2.com; Facebook: ShawnAllred Middleton for Melbourne City Council. Labor appeared to have picked up primary votes in both Brisbane and Macnamara just the greens picked up more, so not all negative for them Interestingly the preferences for non-green/lib/labor voters in those seats (mainly right-wing UAP,ON, LDP and smaller left-wing AJP) were split around 50% lib, 35% green and 15% alp so assume more UAP/ON/LDP voters preferenced greens over labor. The red line in the chart below highlights how strong Labor's two-party preferred vote is in Melbourne compared to Victoria as a whole, consistently 15-20% higher. Tel: +61 3 8347 8300 GRN 30,291. 3483 remaining and they are breaking 25.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 30.8% GRN and 15.6% Other. Incredible stuff! This month, council members are voting on Melbourne's proposed$242 million total city budget for 2022-23, among other topics. Live scores Keep across all the live scores and results from the Australian Open at Melbourne Park Melbourne - Federal Election 2022 Share 86.9 % turnout, final figures GRN retain Adam Bandt elected 12.4% swing from GRN Preference count Labor Party Keir Paterson 39.8% 38,456 Greens Adam Bandt MP 60.2% 58,050 50% This due to running a more centrist campaign including accepting climate targets, not running on African Gangs etc. Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports since 1998, . Greens definitely over performed in Prahran. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park and South Melbourne. But, because the margins are so slim, what favours Labor is that it wont take much of a change to how votes are breaking (either Libs or Greens start doing worse) for them to stay in the top two and win. Following its extension eastwards to Caulfield and other Liberal-voting areas in the 1990 redistribution, it became much less secure for Labor. Yesterday ABC only called Brisbane for Greens after the Labour candidate made a concession call to the Green candidate. He grew up in Melbourne's western suburbs delivering newspapers to help his working-class family with a bit of extra income while he gained his accountant's diploma. "It must be in a smart, resilient and low-impact manner., Occupation: Small-business owner and nonprofit executive director, Education: Doctorate of public administration (in-progress); master's in educational leadership; bachelor's in elementary education. Contact Gallop at 321-917-4641 or [email protected]. Bandt worked as an industrial and public interest lawyer for the decade before his election to Parliament in 2010. This may be due to Melbourne having a sitting Green MP in Adam Bandt, or be related to Labor pulling out of campaigning after disendorsing its candidate. Harbour Master's Directions & Port Information Guide, Notices to Mariners & Operational Instructions. Either way this might be the last seat to be called because it wont even be mnown who the two-party count is between until a full distribution of preferences, and all 3 combinations are possible. Agents must notify Ports Victoria of any changes to this schedule. But Melbourne differs from other electorates in two ways. Education: University of Akron/Chancellor University, Political/government/civic experience: 30 years of public service, including four years with the City Council in West Melbourne. William Bowe actually says he thinks its trending Greens. 1422 are remaining and they are breaking 24.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 34.2% GRN, 13.2% Other. And all it will take is slightly weaker flows for them, particularly from the postal votes, or just less postal votes being returned, for Labor to stay ahead of them. The electorate covers 40 square kilometres. She is a former planning and environmental lawyer, and has also worked as an advisor to the Australian Mission to the United Nations and as a volunteer lawyer at Environmental Justice Australia. Melbourne has experienced much growth in the quality of life, business opportunities and the arts. Assume no leap in turnout leaves 8 792 votes remaining to be counted, less 6.44% informal rate (566 votes) = 8 226 votes;- are not sufficient from which Green & Liberals can find 8 295 primary votes. Amazing result from Steph Hodgins-May and even if she doesnt win, hopefully it will energize her to try a 4th time. 100% agree. 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